Climate change in New Mexico

New Mexico journalist (and friend of Inkstain) Laura Paskus today launched a year-long look at climate change in New Mexico. From the opening installment:

As the region continues to warm, snowpack will continue to decrease, the snow line will move higher in elevation and farther north, and winter snows will start later and end earlier in the season. Evaporation from reservoirs will increase; water storage in reservoirs will decrease.

I’m happy about this for a number of reasons.

The first is the subject itself, which I think is incredibly important. The second is that I think journalism matters, by which I mean that the telling of stories about important things matters, and Laura’s partnership with New Mexico In Depth fills a gap left by the decline in the journalistic enterprise.

The third is that she’s my friend, and I understand the journalistic passion that drives her work. In this regard, Laura is a journalist’s journalist, and the opportunity to dig this deeply into a project of this sort, of a journalist’s own choosing, is to be treasured.

The series landing page is here.

Lake Mead forecast to drop another 5 feet in the coming year

Even with a dose of bonus water transferred from the Upper Colorado River Basin’s storage account to the Lower Colorado River Basin’s storage account, Lake Mead is forecast to drop another five feet between now and the end of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s first forecast of the 2015-16 water year.

Data source: USBR. 2016 projection based on USBR October 2015 24-Month Study

Data source: USBR. 2016 projection based on USBR October 2015 24-Month Study

We’re heading into another one of those “Lake Mead’s at its lowest level in history” years again this year. We journalists will have a cheap story peg any time we want it as yet more shoreline emerges along the reservoir’s edge that has been underwater since the 1930s.

Basin geography

Colorado River Basin map showing location of Lake Mead and Lake Powell, courtesy USBR

Colorado River Basin map, courtesy USBR

Just a reminder of basin geography for those not obsessed with these things: Lake Powell is on the Arizona-Utah border. It represents the Upper Basin’s “savings account”, used to meet the Upper Basin’s delivery obligations under the 1922 Colorado River Compact. Lake Mead is on the Arizona-Nevada border just southeast of Las Vegas. Water is released from Mead over the course of the year for farms in Arizona and California (ag gets the biggest share of water), for all the region’s major urban areas on the U.S. side of the border (Las Vegas, Phoenix-Tucson, Los Angeles-San Diego), and for farms and cities in Mexico.

My updated graph is based on the 24-Month Study released today by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (pdf). You should maybe ignore the Lake Powell forecast this early in the year – that’s entirely dependent on how much snow we get this winter, which at this point is not accurately forecastable. But the Lake Mead forecast is worth paying attention to, even this early in the year, because it’s based on human decisions about how much water to release from Lake Powell and send on down through the Grand Canyon to Mead. That’s governed by the rules in the 2007 Interim Guidelines, which are likely to call for a release of 9 million of acre feet of water from Mead to Powell in the coming year. The minimum legally required Powell release is 8.23 million feet, but with Powell higher than Mead, the rules have provisions to release extra to try to keep the two big storage tanks roughly in balance.

Lake Mead accounting

Even with that bonus water, Mead is forecast to keep dropping, because water users downstream are still using significantly more than the system can reliably provide under hydrology like this. Here’s the math:

First, the inflow

  • 9.9 million acre feet (Powell release plus side inflows)

Now the debits on Lake Mead

  • 9.8 maf (AZ, CA, NV, Mexico delivery plus downstream regulation gains and losses)
  • Mead evaporation loss: 0.5 maf acre feet

Balance

  • ~ 400,000 acre foot deficit*

This can’t go on forever. I’m confident that downstream users are capable of getting by on less water. They need to get on with that project.

* Calculations after the classic Bureau of Reclamation “structural deficit” slide, adjusted with this year’s 24-Month Study projections, and rounded to one or two significant digits because who really believes any more than that anyway?

It’s hard to explain my daughter’s art, except that she’s good at it

Sometime yesterday afternoon, my “grandbotchild” @thinkpiecebot passed a milestone: my daughter Nora Reed’s digital art now has more Twitter followers than I do.

The bot is a thousand lines of code that is somehow able to speak like a relatively intelligible human, if by “relatively intelligible human” you mean an underthinking op ed pundit being paid too much to spout shallow ideas. Here’s Nora explaining the thing to Sean Miller at PopMatters:

My fascination with bots and generators is pretty simple, though: they make me laugh. I can make a bot that tickles my fancy, press a button, and have pretty good jokes come out the other side. There are other reasons, too—I’ve always loved playing with language and things like headlines and advertisements can use such repetitive phrasings that it’s really easy to imitate them or introduce absurdity or the surreal. There’s also a fair amount of frustration in the bots too, though—I’m obviously pretty annoyed with thinkpieces in general and making fun of them makes it easier to deal with that.

It’s mostly the joke thing, though.

 

The craft here is to provide both believable basic language elements and a grammatical structure in the code from which emerge things that are surprising but don’t have the clunk of a machine language failing some humorous Twitter version of the Turing test. Nora’s gotten really good at that.

For my benefit, she’s added some “drought” meme language, which has created some fun cross-pollination:

TPB, as we call our little grandbotchild, has had a bit of a run of celebrity of late. Aaron Sankin did a fun piece in the Daily Dot and then turned the bot into an assignment editor for the staff, with uneven but sometimes hilarious results. Bustle did a piece, and some others I can’t put my fingers on. In addition to being wonderful, TPB touches the sort of Internetty nerve that Internetty writers love to write about.

Nora had this to say earlier today:

Yes, dear, it is.

You can support Nora Reed’s art here:

Colorado River salinity program showing its age

In the latest High Country News, Stephen Elliott reports on the tribulations of the Paradox Valley desal unit run by the Bureau of Reclamation to help reduce salt load on the Colorado River:

Without the unit’s deep injection, the salt that covers the desert valley floor at Paradox, and the thousands of tons of it just beneath the surface, will continue to flow to the Colorado River and its millions of downstream users. Each ton of salt in the river causes $173 in damage to crops, water treatment facilities and the like, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. That puts the price tag for going without the Paradox unit at around $457 million annually, and that doesn’t account for the damage done to fish, bugs and other aquatic life. As Luecke says, something has to be done: “It’s important that that salt be taken out.”

What if I wanted the savings from my water conservation to go to the Rio Grande itself?

Jay Lund, Dr. Water at UC Davis, asks a provocative question that gets to this gnarly question of the status of water saved by conservation measures – what if municipal water users could direct how the savings from their conservation efforts are used?

Albuquerque has done extraordinarily well in the last two decades. Per capita water use is on track to be half of what it was in 1995, and total municipal water use (even after population growth) is the lowest it’s been since the 1980s. But never has there been a conversation here about what the savings are to be used for. It’s simply presumed that the savings will continue to be used in the municipal water system. For some, this chafes. Here’s Lund:

People who save water like to know their conserving is doing some good, such as sustaining economic growth, building municipal reserves for longer droughts or supporting the environment.

But many urban residents are concerned their water savings will go to uses they value less — such as supplying more wasteful customers, new urban development or agriculture — rather than meeting the needs of fish, waterbirds and other wildlife, which they value more.

What might a policy mechanism that broadens the options look like?

 

Arizona, water conservation, and the tragedy of the “paracommons”

Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., had a go at Deputy Interior Secretary Mike Connor during a Senate hearing last week, looking for assurances that if his state left unused water in Lake Mead as part of a Colorado River Basin conservation effort, the Interior Department wouldn’t just kype it and give it to someone else (mumble mumble California something mumble mumble):

The number one priority in Arizona is to make sure that when Arizona, or any other state, voluntarily contributes their water to the health of the Colorado system the contributed water actually stays in the system and doesn’t disappear along somebody else’s canals.

"system water" behind Hoover Dam - the "paracommons", wet water style

“system water” behind Hoover Dam – the “paracommons”, wet water style

This is the latest manifestation of something I’ve written about before, Arizona’s deep-seated paranoia that others (mumble mumble California something mumble mumble) have designs on their scarce water supplies. But it also gets to a really interesting issue that I think needs to be articulated carefully as we go about the project of using less water: where does conserved water go?

Bruce Lankford of the University of East Anglia, in his recent book Resource Efficiency Complexity and the Commons: The Paracommons and Paradoxes of Natural Resource Losses, Wastes and Wastages, coins a new term to try to get his arms around the issue – paracommons:

In a scarce world, society is increasingly interested in the efficiency of resource use; how to get more from less. Yet if you ‘save’ a resource, what does that mean and who gets the ‘saved’ resource? In other words who gets the gain of an efficiency gain?

Consider a few examples:

Las Vegas

As a result of its extraordinary water conservation success, Las Vegas reduced its use of Colorado River water by more than 30 percent over the last decade. That saved water remains Las Vegas’s. It has banked lots of water in aquifers around the West with the idea that it could withdraw that water for its own later use.

Phoenix

Phoenix also is not using its full Colorado River allocation, but the rules around its Colorado River water use are different. Any “saved” Colorado River water that might result from Phoenix’s conservation efforts reverts to other users. (see here and here for an explanation of the rules)

Yuma

red lettuce, Yuma County Arizona

red lettuce, Yuma County Arizona

Farmers in Yuma County (they’re the ones growing a big fraction of your lettuce in the winter) have reduced their water use by more than 30 percent in the last three decades as they have shifted to more efficient irrigation techniques. Like Phoenix, they have seen their water revert to other Arizona water users who are behind them in that state’s water allocation queue. They haven’t gotten a dime for the water.

Imperial

Farmers in the Imperial Valley of southeastern California have reduced their water use by 22 percent in the last decade. They have been compensated for this by other water users in California, with saved water going to Coachella Valley, San Diego, and the Los Angeles area. Some of the saved water is providing environmental flows to the Salton Sea.

Mexico

System improvements and operational changes in Mexico in recent years have saved water for a variety of reasons and purposes. Some of that water was used last year for an environmental pulse flow through the desiccated Colorado River Delta.

the paracommons

So we’ve got four different types of cases above:

  • conserved water retained by the entity doing the conserving for later use
  • conserved water going into the common pool for use by others
  • one group of water users paying for the water conserved by another
  • conserved water used for environmental benefit

The differences in the above cases illustrate the range of rules governing water management. The rules are crazy complicated, and importantly they generally weren’t written with this sort of “How can we best manage conserved water?” question in mind.

I hate the word “paracommons”, but Lankford is careful and deliberate in defending the need to coin a new word to deal with a resource category that, because it is poorly labeled, also has been poorly conceptualized. And strange word or not, as a conceptual category I find the paracommons quite useful. Lankford’s basic argument is essentially that efficiency yields something (in this case saved water) that has a lot of the basic characteristics of a common pool resource. Do we leave that water in the river to reduce the environmental damage our diversions have caused? Do we save it in a reservoir for future use? Do we just hand it off to another water user who’s come up short this year? This raises a whole bunch of institutional challenges that we’re only beginning to grapple with as we transition from water management under surplus to scarcity.

Flake’s grandstanding in the Senate hearing was annoying (can you Grand Canyon staters chill already about the “California’s gonna steal our water” meme? increasingly sounding to me like fingers on a blackboard). But his political play to the home crowd is enabled by confusion on this issue. The water in question is what Colorado River Basin managers are calling “system water”, by which they mean water that is intentionally conserved and just left in the common pool, with no one’s name attached and no purpose delineated for its use. All the cool kids are trying to pull off system conservation deals right now as a way of reducing the decline in Lake Mead (see here and here). Ambiguity about the status of that saved water as it enters the common pool is exactly the problem Lankford is writing about. And it is precisely that ambiguity that leaves the door open for Arizona’s old fears that someone’s trying to screw them in a water deal.

I’ll be speaking in Albuquerque Oct. 31 about the fate of the Rio Grande

I’ll be yammering on about “New Mexico’s Rio Grande: Fate of a 21st Century River“, Oct. 31, 10 a.m., at the Albuquerque Open Space Visitor’s Center. We tried to schedule it for a time when the sandhill cranes had arrived. You’ve already heard me, but the OSVC is one of the best places in town to hang out and watch cranes on a fall day.

Conservation and the municipal water finance dilemma

Matt Weiser takes us into the strange world of California municipal water infrastructure finance, where costs are relatively fixed and vendors are trying to sell less of their product:

[M]any water agencies are feeling the strain because they had already delayed imposing rate increases for a number of years due to the drought and a reluctance to strain ratepayers. The drought aggravates things because water conservation mandates reduce the amount of water they sell, thereby reducing revenues.

 

Thoughts on federal drought legislation circa October 2015

Some thoughts after today’s Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on federal western California New Mexico etc. drought legislation….

On Congressional process

We currently have two “California drought bills” – H.R. 2898 developed by California House Republicans and S. 1894. They are very different. As a matter of process, the details of the difference don’t matter as much as the very fact of their difference. The rest of Congress is unlikely to meddle in California’s water management affairs unless and until its own Congressional delegation can come up with a unified approach. The fact that we’ve got two such different bills means the likelihood of a California drought bill this year is close to nil. Next year is an election year. So California, don’t expect much help from the federal government beyond that which is possible under current authorizations and appropriations.

the downside to litigation

Deputy Secretary of the Interior Mike Connor, in criticizing the House bill, described it as a recipe for litigation. I don’t know enough about the bill to know whether he’s right, but he made a central point that is crucial to water problem solving. Litigation provides narrow solutions and increases constraints. Collaborative, negotiated solutions have the potential to expand options and provide flexibility.

the Middle Rio Grande

Adrian Oglesby, director of the Utton Center* at the University of New Mexico School of Law and vice-chair of the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District board, suggested a new flexibility on the part of central New Mexico’s largest water agency. The conservancy district, which provides irrigation water to farms and other farm-like properties, has long opposed the creation of water leasing programs that would provide temporary transfers to provide environmental flows. The agency’s position has shifted, Oglesby told the Senators, which creates an opening for S. 1936, sponsored by Tom Udall. Udall’s bill would begin to create the institutional infrastructure for such leasing programs, which could keep water rights attached to old farmland while allowing temporary use of the water elsewhere.

This is a big deal.

Since I handed in my press card, I’ve lost touch with Congressional process issues such that I’m not entirely clear about the path forward for the Udall bill. My impression is that its best hope is to be folded in with other federal drought legislation into some sort of omnibus package. My comments above about the California legislative logjam leave me less than optimistic about S. 1936’s chances this year, but this is the sort of legislation that has to go through a learning process, and the simple fact that the Senators wanted to hear from Adrian today suggests that progress is being made in fleshing this stuff out.

* disclosure: Adrian and the Utton Center have provided me, in my new capacity as University Dude, with funding for my contributions to a study currently underway into resilience and New Mexico water law and policy.