Deadpool Diaries: Colorado River Report Card, May 2023 – please tell us your plan

The Bureau of Reclamation is currently blasting water out the bottom of Glen Canyon Dam as Lake Powell rises with this year’s big snowmelt. (The big spike is an experimental flow pulse.) Lake Mead, as a result, is rising for the first time in a while, with the wrecked speedboats disappearing – and with it, …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool Diaries: Colorado River Report Card, May 2023 – please tell us your plan’ »

Deadpool Diaries: tapping the brakes on Colorado River cuts

Last updated 2 p.m. MDT April 12, 2023 – with explanation of why the feds’ cut isn’t as deep as the states’ I’ll need a few more days to digest all 476 pages of the Department of Interior’s Colorado River Draft Supplemental Environmental Environmental Impact Statement, but the top line numbers are worth sharing right …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool Diaries: tapping the brakes on Colorado River cuts’ »

Deadpool diaries: Bonkers snowpack, open thread

Snowpack, runoff, reservoirs In the comments, Nick from Australia is on “team Powell 3600”. Last month Reclamation was on “team Powell 3569.93“, meaning the projected elevation of Lake Powell above sea level at the end of the water year, and the CBRFC’s forecast for runoff into Powell is up two million acre feet since those …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool diaries: Bonkers snowpack, open thread’ »

Deadpool Diaries: In March, the Rio Grande/Colorado River snowpack went bonkers

The ditches were flowing across Albuquerque’s valley floor yesterday as I criss-crossed them on a long, aimless bike ride, the first day it really felt like spring. The cycling challenge at this winter<->spring pivot point is clothing – layers for a morning start hovering just above freezing, with a pannier stuffed with the layers by …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool Diaries: In March, the Rio Grande/Colorado River snowpack went bonkers’ »

To use or refill? (a good mid-March Colorado River Basin forecast raises the question)

With more wet in the forecast, the latest numbers from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center look very good right now: The active weather pattern that began around mid-February continued through mid-March across the region. Precipitation was above to well above normal across most of the region during the first half of March. March 1-16 …

Continue reading ‘To use or refill? (a good mid-March Colorado River Basin forecast raises the question)’ »

Deadpool Diaries: Colorado River report card

With the March 24-month study out, a status report on the Colorado River Basin’s critical numbers. I’ve added the “minimum probable” forecast this time to help better understand the risk profile. In brief, water users continue to take more water out of Lake Mead than is flowing in. Most Probable Lake Mead million acre feet …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool Diaries: Colorado River report card’ »

Deadpool Diaries: A report card on our response to inconvenient science

A Colorado River report card Lake Mead Water Year 2023, based on the most recent Bureau of Reclamation 24-month study Lake Mead million acre feet percent full Start of WY2023 7.328 28.08% End of WY2023 6.508 24.93% gain(loss) (0.820) -3.14%   Current forecast U.S. Lower Basin water use state projected use in maf percent of …

Continue reading ‘Deadpool Diaries: A report card on our response to inconvenient science’ »

Inching toward El Niño

Today’s ENSO outlook (El Niño Southern Oscillation) suggests a consensus among “the models” that the odds are tipping toward an El Niño for the coming summer and fall. The humans in the loop are more bearish: The most recent IRI plume favors ENSO-neutral to continue through the spring, with El Niño forming during summer 2023 …

Continue reading ‘Inching toward El Niño’ »