By Eric Kuhn The Colorado River’s natural flows are shrinking by 9% per degree C (1.8 F) of warming as climate change continues to sap the river’s flow, according to an important new study by Chris Milly and Krista Dunne of the US Geological Survey. Milly and Dunne also conclude that increasing precipitation is unlikely …
Continue reading ‘How Dry was 2000-2018 on the Colorado Compared to “Normal”?’ »
By Eric Kuhn As the states of the Upper Colorado River Basin work through how to build a “demand management” account in their reservoirs to protect against shortages, water from retiring coal plants could play a crucial role. With few alternatives for use of the water, simply banking it in Upper Basin reservoirs is an …
Jian Wang and David E. Rosenberg at Utah State have put together an incredibly helpful compilation of past projections of Upper Colorado River Basin consumptive use, as compared to what then actually happened: When averaged over the long term, each scenario of future consumptive use over-estimated the observed consumptive use. Herein lies the space for …
Continue reading ‘We keep projecting that water use will go up. We keep mostly being wrong.’ »
[T]he anticommons refers to situations where there are numerous overlapping rights holders (or what might also be seen as numerous policy advocacy coalitions) each with some power to veto or block system or operation change. The tragedy emerges when the composite effect of such power prevents significant change in the system. – Jones, Benjamin A., …
Continue reading ‘Robert Moses, the Colorado River, and the tragedy of the anticommons’ »
OK, “strategy” is not exactly the right word here, but we take our water conservation where we can find it, eh? Luke Runyon took a nice dive into the water supply implications of the West’s wave of coal plant retirements. Because coal plants use water. Here’s my coauthor Eric Kuhn on the implications: “As a …
Continue reading ‘Retiring coal plants as a Colorado River Basin demand management strategy’ »
All the places New Mexicans get their water via winter snowpack – headwaters of Rio Grande, Colorado River, and the Pecos – are forecast to see expanding or persisting drought through the spring.
update: It’s apparently at 6 p.m., not 6:30, thanks to alert reader! My coauthor, Eric Kuhn, will be joining a bunch of other Colorado River smart people tomorrow (Thurs. Feb. 20, 2020) in Moab for an event organized by Utah State’s Center for Colorado River Studies: February 20, 2020 — The Future of Lake Powell Forum …
A friend sent me an illuminating table that does a nice job of adding perspective to something I’ve written about several times here – California’s stunning reduction in its use of Colorado River water. Data in thousands of acre feet.
My thanks to a friend who recently pointed me, as we discussed the appropriate ways to account for Arizona’s use of tributary Colorado River water, to the above bit of history. In the official transcript of a 1946 congressional hearing, which was then gleefully repeated down through the years (you can see it on p. …
Continue reading ‘“in tribute to a million acre feet” – Herbert Hoover and Arizona’s Gila water’ »
One of the great lessons of the last two decades on the Colorado River is the futility of the “search for certainty”. No one number for “the flow of the Colorado River” can allow us to plan for the future. We face the formidable task of building a river new management framework that is robust …
Continue reading ‘Levels of uncertainty on the Colorado River’ »