Archive of posts filed under the climate variability category.

US drought migration patterns are not what I expected

Posted by on

We also note that migrants are very strongly attracted to areas experiencing drought. Drought are associated with low precipitation and higher-than-average temperatures, two amenities that attract residents (even if they may be detrimental for local agriculture). That is from The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data, an NBER paper …

Continue reading ‘US drought migration patterns are not what I expected’ »

From Reno, a data point illustrating how epically wet the winter of 2016-17 has been in the West

Posted by on

This is “water year” precipitation in Reno, Nevada, from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. The brown line is an average years’ accumulation. The pinky-purple line is 1982-83, the all time wettest year on record, going back to the 1890s. The green line is this year. Folks, 2017 has already eclipsed Reno’s wettest year on record …

Continue reading ‘From Reno, a data point illustrating how epically wet the winter of 2016-17 has been in the West’ »

Greenhouse gases and southwest “megadrought”

Posted by on

Scientists have dubbed decades-long periods of aridity in southwestern North America “megadroughts“. We’ve had them in the past, and research has long pointed toward an increasing risk of them as the climate warms. New research published last week by Cornell’s Toby Ault and colleagues has generated a wave of scary headlines – A Mega-Drought Is Coming to …

Continue reading ‘Greenhouse gases and southwest “megadrought”’ »

Driest monsoon start in Albuquerque since 1993 and a drying Rio Grande

Posted by on

With just a quarter of an inch of rain (0.63 cm) since July 1, this is the driest start to a monsoon season in Albuquerque since 1993, (source) and it’s been hot – 3 degrees F above average, according to the National Weather Service. The result, Laura Paskus reports, is a drying Rio Grande: The river …

Continue reading ‘Driest monsoon start in Albuquerque since 1993 and a drying Rio Grande’ »

the monsoon arrived, and the citizens of Tucson and Albuquerque did rejoice

Posted by on

The dewpoint yesterday (Tues. June 28, 2016) passed a sort of vaguely science-based but somewhat arbitrary threshold for the start of the monsoon in Albuquerque – three consecutive days above 47F (8.3C): They’re partying in Tucson, too: It's official! The monsoon is here https://t.co/Aq14D9L3Aj via @tucsonstar — mike_crimmins (@mike_crimmins) June 28, 2016

New outlook shifts odds slightly toward dry 2016-17 across Colorado River Basin

Posted by on

At the risk of driving faster than is prudent on a twisty mountain road at night, the new 2016-17 climate outlook released yesterday does not look particularly encouraging for the Colorado River Basin: That’s December 2016 – February 2017. Browns mean odds are shifted toward dry. A reminder that the maps can be a little …

Continue reading ‘New outlook shifts odds slightly toward dry 2016-17 across Colorado River Basin’ »

A drying trend forecast for the Southwest

Posted by on

Today’s long lead outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is enough to make a southwestern water manager long a second consecutive busted forecast*. With La Niña in the offing, the maps show creeping brown across the Four Corners states by August and not letting up until late spring of 2017: * Last winter’s forecast, for a …

Continue reading ‘A drying trend forecast for the Southwest’ »