The January 2025 24-month study is a major caution sign for the Colorado River Basin

By Eric Kuhn, John Fleck, and Jack Schmidt On January 16th, the Bureau of Reclamation released the January 2025 24-Month Study. Based on the January 1st runoff forecast into Lake Powell, the projected “most probable” annual release from Glen Canyon Dam for Water Year 2026 is now 7.48 maf. This needs to be taken as …

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Stable on the Colorado River: When “good” is not good enough

By John Fleck and Jack Schmidt Preliminary year-end Colorado River numbers are stark. Total basin-wide storage for the last two years has stabilized, oscillating between 30 and 27 maf (million acre-feet), where storage sits at the start of 2025[1]. That is lower than any sustained period since the River’s reservoirs were built (Fig. 1). Stable …

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Water for Navajo is the latest victim of Colorado River Basin governance dysfunction

Winters rights are no match for the current dysfunction of Colorado River Basin governance. Shannon Mullane at the Colorado Sun has been on this, and last week had some useful details: Advocates of a deal to secure reliable water for thousands of tribal members in Arizona raced to win Congressional approval until the final hours …

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Lousy Rio Grande snowpack, but the runoff forecast is not as bad as I thought!

The January NRCS Rio Grande runoff forecast is lousy: a mid-point forecast of 65 percent of average at Otowi (upstream of Albuquerque) and 37 percent of average at San Marcial (downstream of Albuquerque). Based on the current snowpack, I expected worse. Forecaster Karl Wetlaufer, in the email distributing the numbers, explains: After a wet start …

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Can “Floating Pools” be the template for future management of the Colorado River?

By Eric Kuhn and Jack Schmidt The press coverage of the December 2024 Colorado River Water Users Association (CRWUA) meeting mostly focused on the ongoing stalemate between representatives of the Upper and Lower Division States over their competing proposals for how the Colorado River Systems’ big reservoirs will be operated after the 2007 Interim Guidelines …

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Inkstain 2024 – y’all really like Eric Kuhn’s writing

If traffic to this blog is an indicator, y’all are really interested in thoughtful independent analysis of the standard talking points in the Colorado River negotiations. Also, the work of my longtime collaborator Eric Kuhn (which is unsurprising, I’ve long been really interested in Eric’s work). Three of the four most-read Inkstain posts this year …

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