“Everybody keeps hoping that the only way we’re going to really rebuild storage is if we have another ridiculous, gangbuster year like 2023,” said Jack Schmidt, a watershed sciences professor at Utah State University and Director of its Center for Colorado River Studies.
But, he continued, “that’s highly unlikely.”
jfleck at inkstain
A few thoughts from John Fleck, a writer of journalism and other things, living in New Mexico
Duh. ?
Duh. ?
Apportion 90% percent of the previous year’s flow (or mean of previous 3 years’ flow) in proportion to the 1922 compact with the Minute giving a share to Mexico. Lake Mead’s evaporation comes out of Lower Basin total and Lake Powell’s evaporation comes out of Upper Basin total. (Powell is upstream from “Lee Ferry,” and so is the Paria.) 5% each is allotted to “refilling” ( a joke) or actually slowly adding storage to Powell and Mead. (I actually think it should be 80, 10, 10%).
This gives some advantage to Arizona (full disclosure, that’s where I live) considering the junior right that Arizona agreed to for the Central Arizona Project. HOWEVER, OF ALL THE STATES, CALIFORNIA IS UNIQUE IN NOT CONTRIBUTING A DROP OF PERENNIAL WATER TO THE COLORADO RIVER and gets 40% of the water.
What are the quantitative contributions of the Paria, Little Colorado, Havasu Creek, Gila and smaller tributaries in Arizona, and who gets that water?
It worked for 80 years because the Upper Basin did not take its share. That’s a two-edged sword. In any other appropriated rights context, they would have lost that water right. Lower Basin States were paid handsomely to leave water in Lake Mead. Upper Basin states got nothing. Seems like a raw deal to me. They gave away water for 80 years. As I understand it, the Upper Basin wants the Lower Basin to absorb all the reductions. Seems to me that they could shrink to what they took, on average, for 80 years, plus some more, without a sweat. BUT, THAT’S WHERE THE WATER COMES FROM. What does hydrology and reality have to do with a poorly thought out and poorly worded agreement 100 years ago? “Lee Ferry”? One mile downstream from the mouth of the Paria River, but the gage is upstream?
Please correct me if I am wrong. As I understand it there is no streamflow gage measuring DISCHARGE into Lake Powell, and only one gage remains in the Grand Canyon at Phantom Ranch. LCR, National, and Diamond Creek are gone as well as Havasu. The Lee’s Ferry gage is upstream from the Paria, and no gage remains on the Paria. Contributions of these tributaries are usually small, but may be significant in comparison with evaporation and stream loss (which nobody mentions as well as I can tell).
I agree with Jack on this point. Our planning for the Colorado River has been baked in hope for many years. We need to plan for the river we have (and may have), not the river we want. If we plan for an 11 or 12 maf river and sometimes get a 16 maf river, then that’s a better problem to have.