The structural deficit
With the March 24-month study out, a status report on the Colorado River Basin’s critical numbers. I’ve added the “minimum probable” forecast this time to help better understand the risk profile.
In brief, water users continue to take more water out of Lake Mead than is flowing in.
| Most Probable | |
| Lake Mead | million acre feet |
| Start of WY2023 | 7.328 |
| End of WY2023 | 6.589 |
| Change in storage | (0.739) |
| Year-end elevation | 1,034.27 |
| Miminum Probable | |
| Lake Mead | million acre feet |
| Start of WY2023 | 7.328 |
| End of WY2023 | 5.883 |
| Change in storage | (1.445) |
| Year-end elevation | 1,023.46 |
Projected water use by Lower Basin states
| State | Projected use in maf | Percent of full allocation |
| California | 4.423 | 100.52% |
| Arizona | 2.358 | 84.21% |
| Nevada | 0.227 | 75.67% |
Sources: Projected reservoir levels, March 24-month studies, retrieved March 15, 2023; Forecast Lower Basin use, USBR Forecast, March 13, 2023, retrieved March 15, 2023
As always, a huge thanks to Inkstain’s supporters for helping make this possible.