With snow on the mountains to the north, the preliminary forecast circulated yesterday by the Natural Resources Conservation Service calls for 11 percent above average flow on the Rio Grande through central New Mexico into Elephant Butte reservoir. This is early in the season, so there are still huge error bars on the numbers, with the 90th percentile possibility at 75 percent above normal (meaning a one in ten chance it’ll be that high) and a 10th percentile forecast (again, one in ten on the low side) that it’ll 55 percent below.

The forecast calls for above average flows on every major river gauge measurement point in the state.

This is the best early season forecast since 2009.