On the first of May, the official forecast for the 2015 water year on the Colorado River was 6.4 million acre feet. The July mid-month forecast is up to 10.2 million acre feet (pdf).

That’s been enough to prevent the need for a Lower Basin shortage declaration (which would have forced water curtailment in Arizona) in 2016, and very likely now in 2017 as well. Lake Mead remains at record lows, and the deeper structural deficit, in which Lower Basin states are using more water than the system can provide over the long run, remain, but this has bought some breathing room.

One hopes it is well used.