Here in the southwestern United States, we’re gearing up for a big blast of El Nino weather, with some areas in California expecting a pounding. But as we desert dwellers dig through closets looking for our underused umbrellas, it’s worth remembering how dry it’s been. That’s percent of normal precip since Oct. 1, courtesy NOAA:
Percent Normal Precipitation, 2009-10 water year
Isn’t it a bit late for the El Nino rains?
Late for it to kick in, yes, if that’s what you mean. But the signal is quite strong here in Jan-Feb-March, something like 40 percent more precip on average in El Nino years compared to neutral years.
Exactly. How strong is the extra percip in Nov/Dec for average El Ninos?
According to NOAA Ed Olenic, the El Nino signal doesn’t do much for rainfall until right about now — mid-January.
For additional discussion, please see below a piece I wrote for this week contrasting NOAA’s forecast versus those who think the Pacific Decadal Oscillation deserves as much as attention as ENSO.
http://www.vcreporter.com/cms/story/detail/el_nino_2010_small_medium_large_or_wanna_be/7558/