Win Quigley on why it wasn’t really a black swan:

[E]very morning my wife and I spend a half hour to an hour reading the newspaper before we walk our dogs. Every morning for many months, up until the real estate market collapse, Bonnie would read the real estate ads and ask the same questions: who is buying all of this real estate and why are they paying such absurd prices for it? When the bubble burst and prices started coming down while loan defaults started to rise, Bonnie was the least surprised woman in America.