The latest ENSO forecast is out. More of the same, expect El Niño to keep ramping up at least into early spring, odds favor season ski passes here where I live, but some bad shit elsewhere”
Global effects that can be expected during November-March include drier-than-average conditions over most of Malaysia, Indonesia, some of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South America and southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions over equatorial East Africa, central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil) and along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru.
This is not predicted to be a terribly strong el nino. For a strong el nino, the nino3.4 index is typically 3 K or larger.