Interesting El Niño forecast out today from the Climate Prediction Center:

Most of the statistical and coupled models predict slightly positive SST anomalies (ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño) in the Niño 3.4 region through the end of 2006. These forecasts are consistent with the recent build up in upper-ocean heat content along the equator.

I wouldn’t start buying stock in New Mexico ski areas just yet, but it’s the first ENSO-positive forecast, with the models starting to spread upward toward an El Niño this winter (that favors wet weather here in the southwest U.S.).