Via Roger Pielke Jr., reference to a new draft from Jim Hansen that usefully clarifies the El Nino discussion of last week:

Present version should make clear that what we are saying is: Global warming has increased the east-west equatorial temperature gradient and that should increase the probability of a super El Nino. It is still a crap shoot, so it requires many rolls of the dice for empirical verification. Even in the last 30 years there have been only two super El Ninos.